Donald Trump will lose 2020 election in a landslide defeat with America’s coronavirus-hit economy proving a ‘nearly insurmountable obstacle’ to him winning, new model predicts
- A new Oxford Economics model predicts Trump will lose November election
- It posits Trump will win just 33% of popular vote due to Covid-19 recession
- Said it will take an ‘economic miracle’ for pocketbooks to favor Trump
- Here’s how to help people impacted by Covid-19
The national election model released by Oxford Economics on Wednesday predicted rising unemployment and inflation will prevent Trump from being reelected.
The study predicted that the president would win just 35 per cent of the popular vote, which marks a sharp turn-around from the group’s pre-coronavirus prediction which put Trump at winning 55 per cent of the vote.
A new model has predicted that President Trump will lose the November election by a landslide due to the floundering economy amid the coronavirus crisis
The study predicted that the president would win just 35 per cent of the popular vote, which marks a sharp turn-around from the group’s pre-election prediction which put Trump at winning 55 per cent of the vote
Oxford Economics predicted the coronavirus recession will see the president suffer a ‘historic’ defeat, common for sitting presidents running for reelection amid an economic crisis.
‘It would take nothing short of an economic miracle for pocketbooks to favor Trump,’ the report concluded.
The model has proven accurate in its predictions every year since 1948, except from 1968 and 1976, and works off the assumption that the U.S. economy will not have bounced back from the pandemic by this autumn, with unemployment rates above 13 per cent, and household incomes six per cent lower.
‘The economy would still be in a worse state than at the depth of the Great Depression,’ the report said.
‘An unemployment rate above its global financial crisis peak, household income nearly 6% below its pre-virus levels, and transitory deflation will make the economy a nearly insurmountable obstacle for Trump come November.’
According to the group, the economic factors point to a clear Democratic win come November, although voter turnout and the evolution of the pandemic could be crucial in determining which way it will swing.
Published at Thu, 21 May 2020 11:58:51 +0000-
Trump will lose 2020 election by a landslide, new model predicts